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欧洲COVID-19流行病的规模和动态

染料,克里斯托弗


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{
  "DOI": "10.5061 / dryad.f1vhhmgv6", 
  "title": "欧洲COVID-19流行病的规模和动态", 
  "issued": {
    "date-parts": [
      [
        2020, 
        9, 
        29
      ]
    ]
  }, 
  "abstract": "<p>欧洲国家报告的COVID-19死亡人数变化了100倍以上。就冠状病毒的传播而言,某些国家相对较低的死亡率可能是由于个体内在的低内因(例如,低人口密度)或施加的接触率(例如,非药物干预),或者是由于接触或易受感染的人数减少(例如,人口较少)。在这里,我们开发了一个灵活的经验模型(偏斜逻辑)来区分这些可能性。我们发现,报告死亡人数较少的国家通常并未固有地具有较低的传播率和流行病增长率,也没有更平坦的流行病曲线。相反,死亡人数较少的国家较早被锁定,流行病的流行时间更短,达到高峰的时间更早,人口也较少。因此,随着封锁的缓解,我们期望并开始看到整个欧洲COVID-19的复苏。</p>", 
  "author": [
    {
      "family": "Dye, Christopher"
    }
  ], 
  "note": "<p>The data used for analysis are provided in the Excel files, in which cells contain formulae for carrying out basic computations. Graphics in the paper are also presented in the Excel files, which point to the source data in each file.\u00a0Click \"don't update\" when opening Excel files.\u00a0Although the SEIR and skew-logistic models cna be run\u00a0from the Excel files provided, readers can also construct these models from the information given in\u00a0the Supplementary Materials (included with the manuscript).</p>\n<p>Funding provided by: Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford<br>Crossref Funder Registry ID: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004211<br>Award Number: </p>", 
  "type": "dataset", 
  "id": "4088855"
}
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